A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
