Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The average number of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that murder data may not indicate better national security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded in these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that last month the least amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it may hide days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.