Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.